As the revival of hostilities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region raises concerns about stability in the Horn of Africa, the roles of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia come under intense scrutiny. These two Gulf powers, both with substantial strategic interests in the region, showcase varying approaches to the crisis, highlighting the complex interplay of diplomacy and regional dynamics. Their involvement not only reflects their ambitions but also underscores the significant impact of external actors on local conflicts.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Renewed violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, prompting attention towards the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, two influential players in the region’s geopolitics. While the UAE has openly expressed its support for Ethiopia’s federal government, Saudi Arabia has historically played a mediating role, including facilitating the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The recent fighting, which endangers the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that had previously halted hostilities between Ethiopia’s central government and Tigrayan forces, raises questions about the potential for a broader regional confrontation and the efficacy of foreign intervention.
On September 25, the UAE publicly condemned the actions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies, affirming its solidarity with the Ethiopian government and advocating for the protection of civilians along with adherence to the peace agreement. Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan, the UAE minister of state, emphasized the importance of Ethiopia’s sovereignty and called for dialogue to de-escalate the situation. However, the extent of the UAE’s leverage in this conflict remains uncertain, as its supportive stance did not clarify whether military assistance was being provided or if a commitment to cease hostilities had been obtained.
The UAE’s economic involvement in the Horn of Africa also offers insight into its motivations. Dubai Ports World manages Berbera port in Somaliland, with a shipping route established in 2025 linking it to Jebel Ali in the UAE, which bolsters trade routes serving landlocked Ethiopia. This economic interdependence further fosters Abu Dhabi’s interest in ensuring regional stability and maintaining positive relations with Addis Ababa. However, it remains unclear whether the UAE can effectively influence the TPLF or encourage Eritrea to de-escalate tensions.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s position regarding the latest fighting has yet to be publicly acknowledged, even as the kingdom has undertaken diplomatic efforts to mitigate tensions in the past. Analysts note that Saudi Arabia has entertained mediation possibilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea, underlining its interest in maintaining security in the Red Sea, a crucial artery for international trade. While Riyadh has historically supported Eritrea, emerging geopolitical strains and competition for influence within the Horn could dictate the extent of its engagement in the Ethiopian conflict.
Compounding the complexity of the crisis is Egypt’s longstanding rivalry with Ethiopia, primarily fueled by disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo has been predisposed to view the dynamics of the Tigray situation through the lens of its own regional standing and security concerns. As allegations of Egyptian support for armed groups in Ethiopia arise, including TPLF affiliates, Egypt has reaffirmed its commitment to non-interference, though its diplomatic ties with Eritrea may further complicate the situation.
The conflict in Tigray holds potential consequences that extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The quest for reliable maritime access by Ethiopia continues to be a source of tension with Eritrea, whose strategic port of Assab remains a focal point of contention. The deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara not only threaten civilian safety but also complicate humanitarian efforts and regional trade dynamics.
As regional powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia navigate this intricate landscape of competing interests and allegiances, their influence should be critically assessed based on tangible outcomes rather than mere postures. The capacity of these nations to leverage their relationships effectively could play a pivotal role in promoting de-escalation and facilitating a renewed commitment to dialogue and peace.
In conclusion, while the UAE’s open endorsement of Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia’s historical mediation efforts present different avenues for engagement, the prospects for effective intervention remain uncertain. Achieving a sustained peace within the context of the Tigray conflict is contingent upon the commitment of the involved parties and the potential for external actors to foster constructive negotiations.
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