As the 39th annual leaders’ summit of the African Union approaches, the absence of former President Donald Trump looms large, reflecting the complex dynamics of U.S.-Africa relations in his second term. While he may not be present, the implications of his policies—particularly his significant cuts to foreign aid and changes in trade regulations—continue to shape discussions among the 55 member states. With an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, African nations are navigating their partnerships with the U.S. amidst a recalibrating approach that emphasizes mutual benefits and respect.
Donald Trump will not be attending the 39th annual meeting of the African Union, which kicks off its leaders’ summit on Friday. However, his presence is still felt as delegations from the 55 member states grapple with the new and disruptive reality of his second term as president of the United States. Trump’s historic cuts to foreign aid, his overhaul of U.S. trade policy, and sweeping immigration policy changes have all had an outsized impact on Africa, even as he has only given the continent slight mention in his broader global agenda.
In the midst of this tumult, the Trump administration has sought to forge new bilateral agreements with African countries, focusing on security and resource gains. Carlos Lopes, a professor at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, remarked that U.S. policy toward Africa has created a level of uncertainty that is bound to influence how African leaders approach this summit. He observes a perceptible shift away from broad multilateral engagement and large-scale development programs towards a more transactional, security-oriented approach.
African leaders are keen to strike a careful balance with the new U.S. leadership. Lopes notes officials are engaging with the U.S. while simultaneously fortifying relations with China, Gulf states, Europe, and intra-African institutions, thereby avoiding over-dependence on any single partner. This dynamic suggests that the defining theme of the summit may be a mutual recalibration: the U.S. adopting a transactional model of engagement, alongside African leaders emphasizing that partnerships must be reciprocal, predictable, and respectful to be sustainable.
An outsize impact marks the intersection of American policies and African development. The White House’s National Security Strategy, released in November, offered only fleeting references to Africa, with just three paragraphs dedicated to the continent toward the end of the 29-page document. Those sections reiterate a long-standing U.S. aim of countering China’s influence while highlighting Trump’s recent initiatives to resolve conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. However, the strategy alludes to a more profound vision for U.S.-Africa relations, shifting from a reliance on foreign aid to fostering investment and growth. This pivot is envisioned to be supported by new bilateral arrangements with countries committed to liberalizing their markets for U.S. goods and services, thereby aiming to enhance development efforts throughout the continent, especially regarding access to strategic energy and rare earth minerals.
Despite the potential benefits of this shift, the transition away from a foreign aid paradigm has significantly impacted African nations, a topic likely to dominate discussions during the summit. With approximately 26 percent of the continent’s foreign aid historically stemming from the U.S., the repercussions of Trump’s cuts have been poignant. By 2024, the U.S. was projected to provide nearly .47 billion in direct foreign investment in Africa, primarily through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). However, Trump has dismantled USAID and canceled billions in aid initiatives, leading many experts to assess that these drastic changes are already affecting health and nutrition across the continent adversely.
Belinda Archibong, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, noted that the cessation of USAID has severely impacted global health funding, particularly in African countries. The Center for Global Development warns that current U.S. foreign aid reductions could result in 500,000 to 1 million deaths annually, with increased malnutrition mortality in countries like Nigeria, Somalia, and Kenya, along with disruptions in HIV treatment and prevention programs. These issues are poised to be key points of discussion as African leaders look for ways to mitigate these challenges.
In response to a diminished USAID, the Trump administration has initiated at least 16 preliminary bilateral agreements on public health initiatives with various African nations, coining the term “America First global health strategy.” While some may view these agreements positively, critics express concern over their potential transactional impacts, which could lead to corruption and sustainability issues.
For many experts, Trump’s absence will highlight his broader influence at the summit. Everisto Benyera, a politics professor at the University of South Africa in Pretoria, described Trump as the “proverbial elephant in the room.” The heightened tariff policies instituted by Trump have had a pronounced impact on African economies, as tariffs imposed on 20 countries in April reached rates as high as 50 percent. Such measures disproportionately affect nations with specialized industries reliant on export markets.
Amid these economic pressures, the African Union will seek to maintain a tone of “strategic ambiguity” at the summit while navigating relationships with major global powers such as Russia and China. Many leaders are expected to emphasize the importance of multilateralism, international law, and consistency, reflecting Africa’s growing position as a normative actor on the global stage.
This summit provides a crucial platform for African leaders to advocate for equitable partnerships and assert their role in global governance, while also dealing with the realities of shifting U.S. foreign policies in an increasingly interconnected world. Such discussions will likely stress the need for mutual respect and reciprocity in international relations.
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