In a significant move that could reshape the dynamics of Middle Eastern diplomacy and energy production, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that the recently announced civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia hinges on the kingdom’s normalization of relations with Israel. This unprecedented linkage highlights the evolving geopolitical landscape, where nuclear energy aspirations intertwine with diplomatic strategies, reflecting broader regional ambitions and the intricate balance of power in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement recently signed with Saudi Arabia is “totally subject” to the Kingdom normalizing relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. Trump’s remarks, made shortly after the announcement of the agreement, have added an air of uncertainty to the deal, the specifics of which remain under wraps.
In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump asserted that while the agreement “will be approved,” it is contingent upon Saudi Arabia joining the “very respected and successful” Abraham Accords. The Kingdom, however, has not responded to Trump’s assertion, and any acceptance of normalization with Israel would mark a significant shift in Saudi foreign policy, which has traditionally resisted such an alignment.
The U.S. Department of Energy announced that Washington and Riyadh had signed what they termed a “peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement for a decades-long, multi-billion dollar partnership,” along with a “bilateral safeguard agreement” related to the establishment of a civilian nuclear program. Approval from the U.S. Congress is needed for the agreement to take effect, raising further questions about its future.
Reports suggest that the agreement might permit Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its territory rather than solely relying on imported nuclear fuel. This potential change in policy indicates a departure from the U.S.’s longstanding approach to civilian nuclear programs, which has typically opposed the export of enrichment technology to nations without prior capability.
Despite these reports, Trump appeared to contradict claims regarding uranium enrichment, stating, “There will be no enrichment of material!” and adding that “the United States is not opposed to Civil (Non-Enriched) Nuclear Facilities.” Under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have signed, uranium enrichment is permitted; however, high-level enrichment is a concern due to its potential use in nuclear weaponry.
The implications of this pact extend beyond Saudi Arabia and could greatly affect regional stability. Critics, particularly within nuclear non-proliferation advocacy circles, argue that the agreement could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, potentially encouraging countries like Iran, which is itself embroiled in contentious nuclear issues, to pursue weapons capabilities. Iran maintains that it seeks only peaceful nuclear energy solutions, framing enrichment rights as a sovereign matter.
In a broader context, Turkey, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates are also engaged in civilian nuclear projects, revealing a regional trend towards developing nuclear energy infrastructure.
Trump’s comments have sparked confusion regarding the current state of the Abraham Accords, which saw several Arab nations normalize relations with Israel after their initial signing by the UAE and Bahrain in December 2020. Although intended to bolster peace and collaboration, these agreements have faced criticism for neglecting the Palestinian issue, especially amid escalating tensions in Gaza.
Both Trump and the Biden administration have supported Saudi Arabia joining the Accords, marking a continuity in U.S. diplomacy towards the region. However, with numerous unanswered questions looming over the nuclear agreement—especially concerning its connections to the Abraham Accords—further discussions in Congress are expected as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve.
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