EDITOR’S ANALYSIS
The impact of economic perceptions on American electoral choices
In analyzing the political landscape following the recent U.S. elections, a key factor emerges as instrumental in shaping voter preferences: the state of the economy under the Biden administration. As former President Donald Trump stages a notable comeback, many observers point to prevailing cost-of-living concerns as a critical influence on the electorate’s decision-making process.
Recent exit polls reveal that 45 percent of voters perceived their financial situation as deteriorated compared to four years ago when President Joe Biden assumed office, contrasting sharply with only 24 percent who reported an improvement. This sentiment has proven particularly potent among voters who identified inflation as their primary concern, with these individuals supporting Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a ratio of nearly two to one, per the Associated Press VoteCast survey encompassing over 120,000 voters nationwide.
While official figures suggest a relatively stable economic climate—current inflation is recorded at 2.4 percent, below historical averages and close to the Federal Reserve’s target—it appears that many Americans remain skeptical. Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022 amid challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic, generating lasting impressions in the minds of consumers. Furthermore, although wages have indeed grown faster than prices in recent months, many constituents still feel a pinch on their wallets.
An analysis conducted by Bankrate highlights that between January 2021 and June 2024, while wages have increased by 17.4 percent, prices rose by 20 percent within the same timeframe. Consequently, Bankrate projects that the disparity between inflation and wage growth may not fully resolve until the second quarter of 2025. This sluggish adjustment period has compounded the feelings of financial insecurity among the electorate.
In exit polling, an overwhelming three-quarters of voters indicated that inflation caused them severe or moderate hardship over the past year. In contrast, many voters recall Donald Trump’s initial presidency as a time characterized by lower inflation and wage growth, a narrative that continues to resonate strongly among the electorate despite looming economic forecasts warning of potential inflationary consequences stemming from Trump’s proposed tariffs.
As the dust settles from the election, it is clear that Vice President Harris could not detach herself from the economic narratives surrounding Biden’s presidency. Ultimately, this dynamic propelled Trump to a significant victory in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, underscoring the profound impact of economic perceptions on American political outcomes.
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