In a significant development for Sudan’s political landscape, a coalition of civilian groups has unveiled a comprehensive nine-point roadmap aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and resetting the nation’s democratic trajectory. The framework, developed through discussions in Nairobi, emphasizes civilian leadership as a crucial element in navigating the challenges posed by military factions in Sudan, thereby aiming to empower the voices of everyday citizens who have long been sidelined in political discourse. This initiative not only seeks to foster peace but also to redefine the contours of Sudanese governance amidst a backdrop of elite-driven politics.
On December 16, Sudanese political parties, armed movements, civil society organizations, and prominent political figures convened in Nairobi to sign a nine-point political roadmap, designed as a civilian-led initiative to end the ongoing conflict in Sudan and restore a democratic transition. This initiative is framed as an antiwar, pro-peace platform, positioning civilians as a “third pole” against the two military factions embroiled in the conflict: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The authors of the roadmap assert that their efforts aim to reclaim political agency for civilians, following a prolonged period of marginalization by armed actors and foreign mediators. However, critics note that the declaration lacks explicit steps toward military reform, which raises questions about its overall effectiveness. The roadmap has reignited important debates within Sudanese political and civic circles concerning representation, legitimacy, and the ongoing influence of elite-driven civilian politics.
The Nairobi declaration emerged following a statement from the Quad—consisting of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States—released in September. This statement called for an immediate three-month truce, the eventual establishment of a permanent ceasefire, and humanitarian access for civilians, alongside efforts to reform Sudan’s security forces under civilian oversight—principles echoed in the Nairobi declaration.
Among the signatories are notable political entities such as the National Umma Party, the Sudanese Congress Party, and civil society organizations like the Darfur Lawyers Association. The declaration also received endorsement from former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who led Sudan’s transitional civilian government post-overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, up until the military coup in October 2021. Abdelwahid al-Nur, leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW), also added his name to the list, marking a noteworthy collaboration, though concerns about elite dominance in civilian politics persist.
Sudanese researcher Hamid Khalafallah has remarked that despite the declaration’s intent to present a civilian leadership model, it inadequately reflects the broader civic movement within Sudan. He highlights that the Nairobi coalition echoes previous civilian formations that struggled to connect with ordinary citizens, particularly those most affected by the ongoing conflict. Although the declaration references resistance committees that emerged from the 2019 protests and played a role in deposing al-Bashir, no such committees have formally endorsed or signed the declaration.
Reports suggest that while certain grassroots groups were consulted during the drafting of the roadmap, there was a lack of collective deliberation in the process. This has reinforced concerns that civilians on the ground are being politically instrumentalized rather than genuinely empowered. Despite mixed reactions to al-Nur’s participation, observers remain cautious, suggesting that his inclusion may be strategically aimed at counterbalancing military-aligned forces rather than genuinely transforming the civilian political landscape.
Prior to the Nairobi declaration, Sudan had seen the emergence of three primary civilian coalitions, each linked to or perceived as aligned with existing military factions. This fragmented landscape complicates the transition to a unified civilian governance structure, as highlighted by criticism from European officials who have distanced themselves from the Nairobi initiative. They emphasize the need for consolidation under a credible framework led by the African Union, which can secure broad acceptance among Sudan’s populace.
European Union officials have voiced frustration with the fragmented nature of Sudan’s civilian landscape, calling for the development of a coalition capable of leading the transition following a humanitarian truce and ceasefire. This position reflects a broader concern that the persistence of military influence jeopardizes the ability of civilian political entities to emerge authentically.
As commentators continue to analyze the implications of the Nairobi declaration, it becomes clear that both the SAF and RSF, while pivotal in the cessation of hostilities, complicate efforts to envision a future free from elite control and military rule. The challenge to generate broad-based civilian representation remains a critical task for Sudan as the search for peace persists in the context of a complex political landscape.
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