As the New START treaty between the United States and Russia nears its expiration, concerns are mounting about the potential igniting of a new nuclear arms race. The implications of this treaty’s expiration extend well beyond strategic posturing, echoing implications for global security and international diplomacy at a time when collaboration is more crucial than ever. Experts emphasize the urgent need for renewed dialogue and treaties that prioritize peaceful resolutions over an escalation of nuclear capabilities.
Russia has announced that it is now “no longer bound” by the limits set on the deployment of nuclear warheads as the New START treaty, which has been the last remaining arms control agreement with the United States, is set to expire. Signed in 2010 under President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the treaty has served as a critical framework to regulate strategic nuclear weapons and aims to diminish the risk of nuclear confrontation.
With the treaty’s expiration looming on Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the United States had not responded to President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a 12-month extension to continue observing the missile and warhead limits encompassed within New START. “We assume that the parties to the New START treaty are no longer bound by any obligations or symmetrical declarations within the context of the treaty,” the ministry indicated, expressing frustration over what they perceive as a lack of American engagement.
The strategic arms control treaty was designed to restrict the deployment of nuclear weapons aimed at critical military, political, and industrial targets. The end of this treaty raises the possibility that both Moscow and Washington may increase their arsenals and introduce hundreds more strategic warheads. While there are significant logistical hurdles to such changes, the expiration does technically provide both nations with more freedom in their nuclear posturing.
Amid rising tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump has shown interest in negotiating a new agreement to control nuclear weapons, suggesting during a recent interview that he views the expiration of New START as an opportunity to forge a “better agreement.” He has also advocated for including China in future nuclear discussions—a move that reflects the increasingly multipolar nature of global nuclear dynamics.
Experts warn that the expiration of New START could catalyze a renewed arms race, particularly given China’s accelerating nuclear expansion. Security analysts, like Matt Korda from the Federation of American Scientists, caution that without a legal framework governing nuclear arsenals, both Russia and the United States may drastically increase their warhead counts, potentially doubling their deployed arsenals under the most extreme scenarios.
As the clock ticks down to the treaty’s expiration, calls for collaboration resonate outside the political realm. In a recent address, Pope Leo implored both nations to maintain the limits established by New START, urging adherence to replace “the logic of fear and distrust” with a “shared ethic” that promotes collective security and the common good.
The future of international nuclear arms control hangs in the balance, calling for enhanced diplomacy and a renewed commitment to peace during these precarious times.
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