As the world turns its attention to Israel’s upcoming elections on October 27, residents of Lebanon remain skeptical about the potential for change in their tumultuous relationship with the neighboring state. Years of conflict have fostered a deep-seated mistrust among the Lebanese, who anticipate that regardless of the new leadership, entrenched policies toward Lebanon will persist, overshadowing any promises of reform. This prevailing sentiment underscores the complexities of geopolitics in the region, where domestic and international dynamics intertwine, shaping the lives of millions.
Beirut, Lebanon – With the approach of Israel’s October 27 elections, the possibility looms that a transformation in leadership could take place, potentially altering the trajectory of the Israeli government that has overseen the military actions in southern Lebanon. However, for many in Lebanon, hope for a substantial shift in Israeli policy remains dim. Beirut resident Fouad Debs expressed skepticism, stating that any change in Israeli leadership might result in minor adjustments rather than a significant shift in the historical patterns of aggression displayed towards Lebanon.
The legacy of airspace violations, invasions, and occupations has cultivated a prevalent distrust in Lebanon that transcends electoral outcomes. Analyst Karim Safieddine notes that current political discourse in Israel fails to adequately acknowledge the precarious situation in southern Lebanon, with no candidates advocating for withdrawal or recognizing the complexity of the ongoing crisis—an inflection point that many Lebanese feel is rendered invisible in Israeli elections.
The hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified since October 2023, sparked by a Hamas-led assault on southern Israel and subsequent military actions in Gaza. Despite a framework agreement brokered by the United States in June, aimed at ensuring the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, the occupation continues. This situation has uprooted over one million Lebanese residents, leading to widespread destruction in southern villages.
A recent survey from Lebanese American University illustrates the division within Lebanese sentiments, revealing that while 54 percent of respondents favor diplomacy with Israel, a significant portion still supports armed resistance. Notably, 87 percent of those surveyed hold a predominantly negative view of Israel, indicating the depth of animosity resulting from years of conflict.
As Israel prepares for elections, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces opposition from Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party. While many Israelis may view Eisenkot as a means to break from Netanyahu’s longstanding leadership, Lebanese fear that his potential reign will not stray from the established policies of occupation.
Eisenkot, a former army chief known for his significant influence on Lebanon, has previously advocated for aggressive military strategies against Hezbollah, demonstrating a continuity in approach that elicits apprehension among Lebanese citizens. Observers like researcher Elia Ayoub emphasize that criticisms of Netanyahu during the election campaign are predominantly framed around security concerns, leaving humanitarian issues largely unaddressed.
This dehumanization narrative in Israeli society has sparked backlash and marked a troubling normalization of violence against Palestinian populations. Although hostilities between the two sides have subsided somewhat, Lebanon finds itself under continued threat as Israeli demolitions persist without significant opposition. Many Lebanese fear that this ongoing occupation may endure for generations.
As the countdown to the elections unfolds, the political landscape remains mired in uncertainty, with observers pointing to the importance of upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3 as potentially influential on Israeli attitudes toward Lebanon and Palestine. The entangled histories and present challenges highlight the necessity for a reevaluation of strategies and policies by all involved stakeholders, fostering an environment where the prospects for peace can flourish rather than stagnate in a cycle of conflict.
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