As Ivory Coast approaches its presidential election on October 25, the political landscape is marred by turmoil and discontent. Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a controversial fourth term, amid significant backlash against his administration’s decisions to exclude key political rivals from the race. This election is pivotal, not only in shaping the future course of a nation that has emerged as a West African economic leader but also in addressing the deep-rooted grievances that continue to challenge Ivorian society.
Ivorians are gearing up to head to the polls on Saturday, October 25, for a presidential election overshadowed by widespread dissent against incumbent President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to pursue a fourth consecutive term. Although the constitution stipulates a maximum of two terms for presidents, Ouattara contends that a significant constitutional amendment enacted in 2016 effectively reset his term limit, allowing him to seek reelection.
Located along the western Atlantic coast between Ghana and Liberia, Ivory Coast is one of the world’s largest producers of cocoa and cashew nuts and stands as a regional powerhouse and West Africa’s second-largest economy. Its diverse landscapes include lush rainforests and stunning beaches, with around a quarter of its 32 million residents residing in the bustling commercial center of Abidjan. The country is rich in linguistic diversity, with French as the official language alongside indigenous languages such as Bete, Baoule, Dioula, and Senufo.
Despite the steady economic growth under Ouattara’s regime, as indicated by World Bank metrics, many citizens are expressing their discontent regarding the rising cost of living and what they perceive as an uneven political playing field. This dissatisfaction has frequently culminated in violence during election periods. The nation was rocked by serious electoral conflict in 2011, when over 3,000 people were killed due to disputes following the presidential election. Recent weeks have already seen sporadic protests against the government’s decision to ban prominent candidates from participating, notably Tidjane Thiam, a former head of Credit Suisse Bank.
To quash these protests, the government has enforced a ban on demonstrations, leading to the arrests of at least 237 individuals from the opposition Common Front movement. In a stark crackdown, 58 protesters recently received 36-month prison sentences for their activism. In preparation for the election, more than 44,000 police and military personnel have been dispatched to maintain order, yet analysts fear that violence on election day could be inevitable.
Approximately 8.7 million registered voters, over the age of 18, are eligible to participate in this election, although historically, voter turnout has been low—only 53 percent of registered voters participated during the 2020 elections. Should no candidate receive an outright majority of the votes, a second round of voting will be necessary.
The Constitutional Council’s decision in June to bar Tidjane Thiam, Ouattara’s primary challenger and leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), left many Ivorians stunned. Thiam enjoyed significant support from the youth demographic and had previously renounced his dual nationality, a requirement for candidacy. Similarly, former president Laurent Gbagbo, a longstanding adversary of Ouattara whose tenure was marred by accusations of crimes against humanity, also remains ineligible to run, due to past convictions.
Critics argue that the exclusion of key candidates like Gbagbo and Thiam has stripped the election of meaningful competition and could exacerbate political grievances, potentially fueling unrest. Beverly Ochieng, a political analyst, warns that this diminished political landscape may contribute to civil unrest and violence surrounding the election.
Despite the controversial nature of his candidacy, President Ouattara remains the favored contender, bolstered by a government that has initiated significant infrastructure and socio-economic developments. However, the sharp criticisms of social inequality, heightened political scrutiny, and regional security threats will shape the ethos of this electoral cycle.
Outcomes from this election will not only mold the immediate political landscape but will also resonate deeply with the aspiration for a more equitable and peaceful Ivory Coast.
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