Recent political developments in Iraq have led to former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki potentially regaining power, raising concerns about the country’s governance and the stability gained since the rise of ISIS. As Iraq navigates through a pivotal transition, the implications of al-Maliki’s return are not only of domestic significance but resonate within the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. Understanding this context is crucial to anticipate both the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead for the nation.
Iraq recently faced a pivotal political shift as incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced his withdrawal from the premiership race, effectively clearing the path for the return of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. This move comes amid ongoing political negotiations following the November elections and raises questions about the stability and direction of the Iraqi government. Al-Maliki’s potential return not only signifies a repetition of political leadership but also highlights the ongoing challenges of state-building that Iraq has grappled with since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
Examining al-Maliki’s track record offers crucial insight into what this change could mean for Iraq. Al-Maliki initially ascended to power in 2006 with the support of the U.S. government, which viewed his leadership as a means to stabilize Iraq. However, as concerns regarding his governance emerged, particularly in relation to the treatment of the Sunni population, these early signs were largely overlooked. U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, within just months of al-Maliki’s appointment, raised alarms regarding his failure to manage the escalating violence affecting Sunnis.
The U.S. administration’s continued backing of al-Maliki illustrates a misjudged approach that neglected the complexities of Iraqi society and the region’s historical context. Under his leadership, al-Maliki implemented exclusionary policies, falsely presenting de-Baathification as a tool for justice while instead using it as a means to marginalize the Sunni community. His government’s oppressive actions included the arrest of moderate Sunni politicians and violent crackdowns on peaceful protests, notably the tragic massacre at al-Hawija in 2013, where security forces killed numerous demonstrators.
Moreover, al-Maliki’s administration faced widespread allegations of corruption, prompting an estimated 0 billion in losses due to mismanagement and theft during his tenure. Despite extensive documentation by the Iraqi Federal Commission of Integrity, accountability remains scarce, enabling a culture of impunity that undermines governance. Reports of “ghost soldiers” and personal military forces being loyal to al-Maliki demonstrated the profound dysfunction within the military and security apparatus, contributing to Iraq’s vulnerability against the rise of ISIS in 2014.
Although al-Maliki did not remain politically inactive after leaving office, his re-emergence could escalate sectarian divisions further and entrench the pervasive corruption in Iraqi governance. His historical ties with Iran might further complicate Iraq’s quest for a more autonomous foreign policy, especially in light of the region’s shifting dynamics post-Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
The prospect of al-Maliki returning to power also poses challenges to U.S. interests in the region, particularly regarding the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). The complexity of dismantling these entities, which al-Maliki significantly influenced, suggests a resistance to the normalization of relations with neighboring regimes, such as Syria.
Ultimately, the ability of Iraqi political elites to break free from a cycle that has led to past crises remains in question. The entrenched patterns of sectarian mobilization and corruption still resonate within the political landscape. As Iraqi youth continue to demand accountability and a departure from this dysfunctional status quo, there exists a crucial need for substantial reforms in governance and representation to pave the way for a more unified future.
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