As the Asia-Pacific region grapples with the increasing challenges posed by the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran, the outcome of Tuesday’s US midterm elections could have far-reaching implications. While many analysts predict that significant changes to US foreign and trade policies are unlikely regardless of the election results, regional leaders are keenly aware of the potential shifts in diplomatic relationships that may arise. This crucial intersection of geopolitical tensions and domestic politics makes the midterm elections a pivotal moment for nations deeply reliant on the US market and security.
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Governments and businesses across the Asia-Pacific region are closely monitoring the implications of the ongoing energy crisis stemming from the conflict between the United States and Iran, as they look toward the US midterm elections. Analysts suggest that the elections may lead to “enormous changes” in the region’s diplomatic and economic dynamics, particularly concerning US policies on the Iran conflict, trade, and tariffs. Despite the anticipation, few expect that sweeping changes will materialize, even if the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.
Steven Okun, a trade specialist and chief executive of APAC Advisors based in Singapore, remarked, “Of course, everybody is watching. It’s great political theatre.” Outside the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region has been one of the hardest-hit areas due to the Iranian conflict, which has severely impacted the flow of Gulf oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this critical chokepoint in response to US and Israeli military actions has led to energy shortages in many countries.
The Philippines, among others, which relies on imports from the Gulf for over 90 percent of its crude oil, has declared a national energy emergency that has persisted since March. Rising fuel costs have drained the foreign exchange reserves of several economically vulnerable countries in the region, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Meanwhile, nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have implemented significant fuel subsidies to protect their consumers.
Public sentiment in the Asia-Pacific remains largely opposed to the conflict, but analysts like Okun believe that a Democratic-controlled US Congress is unlikely to such momentum to alter the course of the war. “I don’t see [a Democrat-controlled Congress] having much change at all, other than the fact that the war will be investigated and there will be oversight hearings,” he noted. The US Constitution grants Congress the authority to formally declare war, but President Trump has framed the Iranian military actions as acts of self-defense, effectively sidelining congressional resolutions urging a withdrawal.
When it comes to trade and tariffs, analysts express skepticism about any significant changes under a new Congress. Following last year’s implementation of substantial tariffs on various countries, including steep levies on Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam, the Trump administration has adjusted its approach but continues to use tariffs as a key tool in economic policy. Okun pointed out, “..the new Congress is not going to matter to the Asia-Pacific because it’s not going to affect trade policy,” emphasizing that tariffs are likely to remain stable and the status of the conflict unchanged.
Nevertheless, some industry experts perceive a narrow opportunity for potential shifts in policy. Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at ISEAS, suggests that a strong electoral rebuke of “Trumpism” could empower pro-free-trade factions within the Republican Party, facilitating a more favorable trade environment for Southeast Asian nations. Olson points out that changes to US trade policy might take time and could be contingent on future elections, particularly the upcoming presidential race in 2028.
In addition to trade and tariffs, there are overarching concerns regarding security guarantees from the US in the Asia-Pacific region. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes the region is looking for greater stability in both trade agreements and military support from the US, particularly in contested areas such as the South China Sea.
In contrast, some analysts anticipate stricter US policies regarding China, regardless of which party controls Congress. Okun forecasts the passage of tougher restrictions that will tighten export controls on technology and chips, a sentiment echoed throughout the policy-making landscape.
While many analysts express doubts that the midterm elections will yield immediate effects in foreign policy, they note that the outcome could influence the geopolitical landscape in the long run, particularly with regard to the relationships Asia-Pacific nations maintain with both the US and other key players in the region.
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