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Guinea holds first elections since 2021 coup, with military leader poised for victory.

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As Guinea approaches a pivotal presidential election, the nation finds itself at a crossroads marked by controversy and hope. Incumbent military leader General Mamady Doumbouya, whose ascent to power followed a coup in 2021, is expected to secure a significant electoral victory, though the environment surrounding the election raises concerns about democratic integrity and human rights. With over 6.7 million registered voters and widespread calls for a boycott from opposition factions, the unfolding political landscape embodies both the aspirations and challenges faced by a country rich in resources but grappling with poverty.

Guinea’s presidential election on December 28, 2025, is drawing keen attention as incumbent military leader General Mamady Doumbouya positions himself for a potential victory following his rise to power in a 2021 coup. Approximately 6.7 million registered voters are expected to participate in the polls, which opened at 07:00 GMT and will close at 18:00 GMT. Doumbouya, who previously served as a special forces commander and is now 41, faces eight other candidates in the election, while ousted President Alpha Conde and prominent opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.

The opposition has advocated for a boycott of the election amid concerns that the country, rich in mineral resources, remains marred by an alarming poverty rate—over 52 percent according to World Bank estimates. Despite a historic transition to democracy with the election of Alpha Conde as Guinea’s first freely elected president in November 2010, challenges linger, as Doumbouya’s coup in September 2021 has stifled this democratic progress.

Political discourse has been characterized by repression under Doumbouya’s regime. Civil society organizations have reported a ban on protests, restrictions on media freedom, and limitations placed on opposition activities. United Nations rights chief Volker Turk recently highlighted serious concerns regarding this political environment, addressing the intimidation of opposition members and the potential for undermining the electoral process’s credibility.

Leading opposition figure Diallo has denounced the upcoming elections as an “electoral charade,” suggesting they are structured to provide legitimacy to an anticipated consolidation of power. Following the approval of a new constitution in a referendum earlier this year, which the opposition also called to boycott, military leaders gained an explicit pathway to electoral candidacy. This constitution also extended presidential terms from five to seven years, renewable once.

As the nation faces these significant political trials, Doumbouya’s administration has highlighted economic initiatives, particularly within the country’s rich bauxite and iron ore sectors. Doumbouya has taken credit for revamping the much-anticipated Simandou iron ore project and emphasizing state ownership of resources, which resonates positively with many locals. With a youthful population—median age approximately 19—Doumbouya’s rise is interpreted by some as an opportunity for generational change. Local mechanic Mohamed Kaba expressed this sentiment, acknowledging the corruption pervading Guinea but expressing hope that the current administration could address these issues effectively.

The electoral process in Guinea remains a topic of intense scrutiny as provisional results are expected within two days of the polls. The ongoing situation embodies the hopes and complexities of a nation striving to balance resource wealth with democratic aspirations and social stability.

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