On Christmas Day, Tarique Rahman, the prominent figure of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and a candidate for future leadership, returned to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape. His return comes at a time of significant uncertainty following the fall of the Awami League government in 2024, setting the stage for a renewed dialogue about democracy and governance in Bangladesh. As the nation approaches the elections on February 12, Rahman’s leadership may serve as a crucial turning point in redefining the political dynamics of the country.
Tarique Rahman, the heir to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has reentered the nation’s political arena after 17 years in exile, coinciding with a turbulent period following the collapse of the Awami League government in August 2024. This high-profile return on Christmas Day was deftly choreographed for public consumption, yet its implications extend beyond mere symbolism to reveal a nation grappling with substantial structural challenges. Today, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, and Rahman’s revival signals the end of a fleeting phase of post-revolutionary calm.
The urgency of the political moment became especially acute five days later, with the passing of Khaleda Zia, former prime minister and key figure in Bangladeshi politics, severing the last ties to the party’s founding leadership. With her death, Rahman has transitioned from being merely a successor to assuming the mantle of BNP leader as the party gears up for elections on February 12.
Upon leaving Bangladesh in 2008, Rahman encountered a fractured society; now, he faces a nation that is not only divided but politically compromised. The abrupt exit of Sheikh Hasina to India after a violent uprising left a backdrop of weakened bureaucratic structures and a deteriorating social contract. Meanwhile, the interim administration, led by Muhammad Yunus, seeks to restore order amidst rising street power that has eclipsed formal political channels. Rahman’s presence infuses the BNP with renewed energy, serving as a focal point for an opposition that has long been marginalized.
For millions of Bangladeshis who witnessed the last decade of electoral processes under Hasina’s authoritative grip, Rahman embodies the promise of renewed choice. Yet, he is not an outsider disrupting the status quo; rather, he is intricately woven into the fabric of the political elite he seeks to lead. As the progeny of two former leaders, Rahman bears the legacy of power and patronage that has historically stifled effective governance in Bangladesh. Allegations of corruption from his past haunt him, offering fodder for his detractors, while his supporters frame him as an unjustly persecuted figure.
This intricate duality defines Rahman’s current political landscape as he attempts to shift from the legacy of informal power dynamics to a more statesmanlike approach. His recent communications emphasize national unity, minority rights, and adherence to the rule of law, suggesting he is acutely aware of the need to appeal to a new generation of voters who demand substantive change rather than mere alterations within the ruling elite.
The BNP encounters a Bangladesh that is increasingly engaged on the global stage and less tolerant of opaque governance. Should Rahman ascend to power, he will be promptly faced with calls for judicial and electoral reforms, necessitating an urgent restoration of institutional credibility to ensure any mandate holds lasting value.
Economically, he is expected to maintain a continuity aligned with past policies, particularly given Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on garment exports and foreign investments. The challenge lies in avoiding the pitfalls of past leadership, where favoritism and score settling undermined governance. The current economic vulnerabilities leave little room for such missteps.
In the realm of foreign policy, particularly regarding India, Rahman appears poised for a recalibration. Historically viewed with skepticism by Indian authorities, he now advocates for a strategy of “balanced sovereignty,” recognizing the importance of fostering positive relations with the nation’s largest neighbor while also responding to domestic pressures.
Ultimately, Rahman’s re-emergence is not merely a personal narrative; it serves as a litmus test for Bangladesh and its democratic aspirations. Navigating this complex landscape presents an opportunity for Rahman to either reaffirm the institutions he once circumvented or fall back into historical patterns of governance that have hindered the nation’s progress. The fate of Bangladesh may well hinge on this choice, determining whether it can escape the cycle of instability or face the prospect of renewed turbulence.
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