As Ethiopia faces the resurgence of armed conflict, the landscape is more complicated than ever due to the formation of new coalitions among various armed groups. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has declared a state of “full-blown war” against the Ethiopian government, which has elevated tensions in a region that has previously experienced significant strife. This situation not only reflects ongoing domestic challenges but also highlights the broader geopolitical dynamics at play in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s National Defence Force has confirmed the deaths of at least 272 fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) during a recent counter-offensive in the northwest Amhara region. In a significant escalation, the Ethiopian military reported that an additional 260 fighters were wounded and many others captured during clashes that erupted after the TPLF initiated attacks on various areas of North Wollo, a region adjacent to Tigray. The military’s statement highlighted the heavy losses inflicted on TPLF, asserting that government forces responded decisively to the group’s movements.
The renewed violence follows the TPLF’s recent declaration, alongside six other armed factions, establishing the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. This coalition includes the newly formed Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and representatives from several other regional movements, marking a notable shift in alignment among groups with disparate historical grievances against the central government.
TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa characterized the current situation as one of “full-blown war,” confirming that Tigrayan forces are collaborating with local armed groups in the Afar and Amhara regions. This new coalition represents a complex realignment in Ethiopia’s conflict landscape, uniting factions that have previously engaged in conflicts among themselves.
As fighting intensifies, the alliance pointed to the Ethiopian federal government as the aggressor, asserting their armed response is part of a broader struggle for survival and autonomy. The conflict has led to significant disruptions in air travel, with Tigrayan forces reportedly seizing control of three local airports and causing flights to Lalibela, a UNESCO World Heritage site known for its extraordinary rock-hewn churches, to be suspended.
The TPLF’s recent escalations echo memories of the devastating conflict that began in 2020, which lasted for two years and concluded with a peace agreement in 2022. During a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde expressed concern over what he described as “the forces of destruction and mayhem” and foreign interference in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs. He contended that Ethiopia has exhibited remarkable restraint and has made progress with its neighboring countries.
Analysts note that the TPLF may receive varying degrees of support from Eritrea, which harbors concerns over Ethiopia’s aspirations to access the Red Sea, a vital route for trade and resources. Assefa from the TPLF maintained that there is no confirmation of Eritrea endorsing aggressive plans, suggesting that involvement might not be imminent.
The evolving conflict in Ethiopia underscores the intertwined nature of domestic strife and regional rivalries, particularly in the context of deteriorating relations with Eritrea and the ongoing civil unrest in Sudan. Recent interactions between Sudan’s military and Eritrean leadership signal a potential alignment of interests that complicates Ethiopia’s security landscape.
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