Ecuador is currently at a crossroads as it navigates a surge in drug-related violence, compelling its citizens to decide on the controversial reinstatement of foreign military bases. Under the leadership of President Daniel Noboa, a referendum is being held that not only addresses this pressing security issue but also considers legislative restructuring that could reshape the nation’s political landscape. The outcome of this vote will have profound implications for Ecuador, potentially marking a significant shift in its approach to combating organized crime.
Ecuadoreans went to the polls on a decisive Sunday to vote on a referendum that could lift a constitutional ban on foreign military bases, a measure put forth by right-wing President Daniel Noboa amidst an escalating drug-fueled violence crisis. With nearly 14 million eligible voters, the referendum also includes a proposal to reduce the number of lawmakers in the National Assembly. These votes come during a turbulent time, as Ecuador’s homicide rate is projected to reach an alarming 50 per 100,000 residents this year, marking the highest in Latin America.
Polls indicate strong support for allowing foreign military bases, with more than 61 percent of voters likely to approve the measure, which could facilitate the return of U.S. forces to the Manta airbase located on the Pacific coast. This base was previously utilized by American forces from 1999 to 2009 as part of anti-narcotics strategies, but the presence of foreign troops was banned after a referendum led by former President Rafael Correa.
Historically, Ecuador was regarded as one of the more stable nations in the region; however, it has recently become a battleground for drug cartels, particularly those from Mexico, exploiting its porous borders and fragile institutions to expand their influence. Under Noboa’s leadership, the government has responded with increased militarized efforts, deploying soldiers onto the streets, conducting aggressive raids on gang strongholds, and imposing states of emergency designed to tighten security across major infrastructure hubs.
The opening months of this year have seen approximately 4,619 murders—a staggering record—according to the Organized Crime Observatory in Ecuador. Amidst this environment, Noboa recently announced the capture of Wilmer Geovanny Chavarria Barre, known as ‘Pipo,’ the leader of the notorious Los Lobos gang, during a collaborative operation with Spanish authorities in Malaga, where he had been evading justice under a false identity. Chavarria is linked to over 400 killings and had allegedly directed criminal networks even from prison before 2019.
As public discourse surrounding the use of military force increases, critics argue that merely reinstating foreign troops is insufficient for addressing the root causes of violence. Former President Correa publicly criticized the proposed return of foreign forces, describing it as an affront to national sovereignty and emphasizing the need for effective governance, rather than foreign military intervention.
Furthermore, the referendum questions also include proposals for a constituent assembly, which has raised concerns among opposition groups regarding the potential for Noboa to further consolidate power. In August, Noboa led a protest against the Constitutional Court, labeling justices as “enemies of the people” after they restricted the reach of expansive security laws.
Ecuador’s recent transition to a significant cocaine transit hub has been exacerbated by the 2016 peace agreement in Colombia, which enabled international trafficking organizations to fill the void left by the demobilization of guerrilla groups. With the country strategically positioned near coca-producing nations such as Peru and Colombia, Ecuadorian ports have become pivotal in the global cocaine supply chain. In a striking display of resolve, Noboa has drawn comparisons between his security strategies and those of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, showcasing images of inmates in a new mega-prison reminiscent of Bukele’s hardline policies.
As the nation grapples with its choices today, the outcome of this referendum will likely have lasting repercussions for Ecuador’s security landscape and democratic framework. #PoliticsNews #MiddleEastNews