President Donald Trump has recently reiterated his controversial claim that the United States is earning “ billion a day” from tariffs, while simultaneously asserting that under President Joe Biden, the country was losing between billion and billion per day. Economists have expressed skepticism regarding Trump’s statements, suggesting that he might be mistakenly conflating estimates of potential revenue from tariffs with statistical measures of the daily trade deficit during Biden’s presidency.
Experts in the field of economics weighed in on these assertions. Robert C. Johnson, an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, indicated that Trump seems to be mixing different financial concepts, which has led to these inflated figures. He pointed out that Trump’s statements lack the necessary accuracy and might create misconceptions about the financial health of the country.
Detailed analysis from various federal agencies contradicts Trump’s claim regarding extraordinarily high daily tariff revenues. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which oversees tariff collections at ports, reported that the average revenue from tariffs has been about 0 million per day from select tariff-related actions implemented during Trump’s presidency. Furthermore, Treasury Department reports indicated that customs duties and associated taxes amounted to roughly .3 billion for the month as of mid-April, averaging out to about 6 million daily. This figure is significantly lower than Trump’s statements.
Economists further clarified that Trump’s assumption of collecting billions in tariffs fundamentally overlooks the relationship between tariff increases and import volume. If tariffs lead to a substantial decline in imports, the projected revenue would naturally diminish. For instance, it has been noted that the average tariff rate applied would only yield approximately .6 billion per day at most under realistic conditions.
Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. was losing billions daily under Biden appears to reference the international trade deficit rather than tariff revenue. In 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a trade deficit of over 8 billion, which, when divided by 365 days, results in an average that aligns closely with Trump’s claims of “loss.” However, commentators such as Gene M. Grossman and Robert C. Johnson argue that such trade deficits should not be construed as economic failures, as they merely indicate the volume of goods imported versus exported.
Tarek Alexander Hassan, a Boston University economics professor, also weighed in, clarifying that trade deficits should not be perceived negatively. He emphasized that they reflect an imbalance in trade volume rather than monetary loss, as the United States receives goods in exchange. Therefore, the narrative surrounding tariffs and trade deficits requires a more nuanced understanding to appreciate the broader implications for the nation’s economy.
As ongoing discussions about trade and tariffs continue, it is essential to rely on accurate data and expert analysis to better understand these complex economic issues.
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