Recent developments in northern Ethiopia illuminate a complex web of alliances and enmities that have formed in the wake of the Tigray conflict. As the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reemerges as a critical player, the Ethiopian federal government is navigating a precarious environment where former allies have turned into adversaries. This evolving situation not only highlights the shifting political landscape in Ethiopia but also reflects broader regional dynamics that call for careful consideration in efforts to foster peace and stability.
Between 2020 and 2022, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) engaged in a protracted conflict against Ethiopia’s federal government, alongside Eritrea and the Amhara militias, known as Fano. However, the landscape in northern Ethiopia has since transformed dramatically. Accusations now arise from the Ethiopian federal government claiming that these former allies are collaborating with the TPLF once more, prompting questions about the shifting allegiances within the region.
The TPLF, under the leadership of Debretsion Gebremichael, has recently stepped up its activities. In March 2025, members of the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) captured significant strategic locations, including a regional radio station and the mayor’s office in Mekele, as well as key towns near the Eritrean border. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies noted that Eritrean forces continue to hold parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts, contradicting peace agreements mandating their withdrawal.
In a correspondance to the United Nations in October 2025, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused both the TPLF and Eritrea of supporting Fano forces, which had been making aggressive advances in the North Wollo area. Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister highlighted a perceived consolidation of power among “the hardline faction within the front and the Eritrean government,” claiming they were preparing for renewed conflict.
Debretsion vehemently denied these allegations, characterizing them as an attempt by the federal government to shift blame and distract from its own shortcomings in fulfilling the terms of the prior peace agreement. He deemed the situation a “dangerous reversal of history,” where aggressors were painted as victims, asserting that new militias were being trained to sow discord in Tigray.
The Fano militias, which operate as a decentralized network of Amhara nationalists, emerged during protests in 2016 and have since moved from an ally of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to a more confrontational stance, fueled by dissatisfaction over government treatment. Their agenda appears now to target Ahmed’s leadership directly, marking a significant shift in their operational focus.
Eritrean participation in the Tigray conflict was acknowledged by Ethiopia’s federal government in February 2026, marking a departure from previous denials. Severe accusations leveled against Eritrean forces included mass killings and widespread looting, which Eritrean officials categorically rejected as “cheap and despicable lies.”
In light of the complicated regional dimensions, the International Crisis Group has noted that Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed aligns himself with those backing Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces in their ongoing conflict. Conversely, Eritrea has formed ties with Sudan’s army and Egypt, creating further tension against the backdrop of the contested Nile water resources.
As renewed fighting broke out in western Tigray, the Ethiopian government and the TPLF exchanged accusations about who instigated the clashes, a reflection of the deepening turmoil and complexity facing Ethiopia. The evolving alliances and hostilities not only impact Ethiopia’s internal stability but also resonate throughout the broader region, highlighting the need for collaborative peace-building efforts and diplomatic engagement.
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