As negotiations surrounding the recognition of a Palestinian state continue to evolve, Saudi Arabia is increasingly positioned as a key player in shaping the future of Arab-Israeli relations. With a legacy of steadfast support for Palestinian self-determination, the kingdom’s strategic approach under the leadership of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims not only at facilitating peace with Israel but enhancing the political and religious legitimacy of the Saudi monarchy within the broader Islamic and Arab worlds. This commitment underscores the enduring importance of the Palestinian question, which remains pivotal in efforts to achieve regional stability and cooperation.
Nearly eight decades after the establishment of Israel, the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state remains the defining question of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Wars have been fought, peace treaties signed, and diplomatic initiatives launched; yet this central issue remains unresolved. Today, Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of efforts to establish a Palestinian state and secure a lasting peace arrangement with Israel. The kingdom’s commitment is underscored by its decision to co-sponsor the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution in 2024, which is currently convening in Rome.
Following in the footsteps of previous Saudi monarchs, King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have upheld a consistent stance on the issue. For more than fifty years, the question has not been whether a peace settlement with Israel is possible but whether the necessary political conditions for a sustainable and legitimate solution are in place. Recognition of Israel and the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state are indeed intertwined aspects of a comprehensive agreement.
This doctrine, originating under King Faisal, established Palestinian self-determination as a crucial element of Saudi national security policy. This principle has been preserved and adapted by his successors to meet changing regional dynamics, with the ultimate objective remaining unchanged. The Fahd Plan of 1981, named after King Fahd, formalized this doctrine by calling for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Arab territories and acknowledgement of Palestinian national rights. Two decades later, Crown Prince Abdullah expanded this vision through the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which offered Israel comprehensive peace in exchange for withdrawal from territories occupied since 1967 and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
The current Saudi leadership, therefore, inherits a well-defined strategic doctrine rather than an unresolved policy debate. Their task is to assess whether today’s diplomatic climate can finally fulfill conditions that have remained fundamentally unchanged for decades. This continuity signifies a broader focus on state legitimacy; for the Saudi monarchy, support for Palestinian statehood is not only a foreign policy concern but also a vital pillar of its political and religious legitimacy, bolstered by its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and its significant standing within both the Arab and Islamic worlds.
The significance of this continuity became apparent following the Abraham Accords of 2020, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These accords demonstrated that Arab-Israeli normalization could progress even without advancements toward Palestinian statehood, thereby reshaping regional diplomacy without resolving the core Palestinian question.
Successive U.S. administrations regard Saudi participation as a crucial component for any comprehensive peace agreement. Although the Abraham Accords can expand in the absence of Riyadh, their full strategic value is contingent on the kingdom’s engagement. The current U.S. administration, under President Biden, aims to position Saudi-Israeli normalization at the forefront of its regional diplomatic efforts, yet the broader context surrounding the recent conflict on October 7 must be carefully evaluated.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has transformed the diplomatic landscape; recent ceasefire initiatives and the establishment of the Board of Peace aim to stabilize the region and pave the way for reconstruction efforts. Their importance lies not in replacing a political settlement but in creating viable conditions for one. For Saudi Arabia, however, the fundamental political imperative – the actual establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state – remains unchanged.
This position is rooted in interconnected political, religious, and economic foundations. The Saudi monarch holds authority not only as head of state but also as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, which carries immense religious significance across the Islamic world. Any decision concerning recognition of Israel would necessitate political backing and broad religious legitimacy, which cannot be credibly procured solely through future negotiations; tangible progress toward establishing a sovereign Palestinian state is essential.
The kingdom’s economic influence further bolsters its position, with Saudi Arabia representing one-third of total Arab economic output and standing as the region’s only G20 member and a global energy powerhouse. This economic clout coupled with its religious authority allows Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic decisions to resonate far beyond mere bilateral relations.
Several major Arab states, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Algeria, maintain no formal recognition of Israel. While these decisions are sovereign, a Saudi-Israeli settlement grounded in Palestinian statehood could dramatically alter the political context of those choices. For instance, Lebanon faces pressure for formal relations with Israel as part of broader stabilization efforts, yet such a move would be far less politically viable without backing from a Saudi-supported settlement based on Palestinian statehood.
The same rationale applies to the broader Muslim world. Influential countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Malaysia have refrained from recognizing Israel due to the unresolved Palestinian issue. If a settlement endorsed by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques were to arise, accompanied by recognition of Palestinian statehood, it would likely compel these governments to reconsider their positions, eliminating significant political and religious barriers.
This distinguishes Saudi Arabia’s potential participation in regional diplomacy from the earlier Abraham Accords. The kingdom’s involvement would carry profound political, economic, and religious implications, transforming both Arab and Muslim engagement with Palestine and Israel.
Whether the current diplomatic efforts can lead to this significant outcome remains uncertain. Stakeholders including Israel, the Palestinians, the United States, the European Union, and regional governments all play essential roles. Ultimately, the decisive action rests with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who must navigate a complex landscape where Palestinian statehood and recognition of Israel are not sequential but parallel obligations; lasting legitimacy for either hinges on both being mutually recognized.
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