As Libya navigates its complex political landscape, a new U.S.-backed initiative seeks to bridge the longstanding divides within the country and foster unity among its fragmented executive authorities. With support growing in both eastern and western Libya, the ongoing discussions reflect not only local aspirations for governance reform but also a broader regional engagement in stabilizing the nation, promising a potential shift towards lasting peace.
Tripoli, Libya – Amid ongoing regional diplomacy and shifting intelligence activities, Libya’s political crisis has reached a pivotal moment. A new initiative supported by the United States aims to eliminate the institutional divides that have plagued the country for years and to unify executive authorities. The proposal has gained traction particularly in the eastern regions, putting significant pressure on the factions in western Libya to respond.
Led by Massad Boulos, the U.S. presidential adviser for Middle Eastern and African affairs, the initiative focuses on establishing a unified government, integrating state institutions, and stimulating American investments in the oil sector. Boulos has positioned this plan as a complement, rather than a replacement, to the ongoing efforts by the United Nations. However, the move has sparked considerable debate over whether the United States can effectively navigate Libya’s entrenched divisions or if this initiative will become just another failed settlement attempt in a long history of unresolved conflicts.
The political silence in western Libya was recently disrupted when Abdul Hakim Belhaj, a significant political figure and former commander of the Tripoli Military Council, publicly endorsed the U.S. initiative on June 21. As the leader of the al-Watan Party, Belhaj called on the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) to clarify its stance on the proposal. He viewed the U.S. plan as an opportunity to expedite political solutions and emphasized that any agreement must be grounded in what is feasible rather than idealistic.
Although Belhaj’s influence has waned in recent years, his endorsement carries weight in a region still grappling with political division. His support follows similar backing from military commander Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces and over 100 members of the House of Representatives (HoR), reflecting a growing consensus for the American initiative.
Aisha al-Tabalqi, a member of the HoR, remarked that the initiative stands out by fostering reconciliation between the two principal factions with actual power. The emergence of supportive voices from the west, she noted, could enhance the initiative’s acceptance across Libya.
Nonetheless, the true extent of support for the initiative is not without its challenges. Mohammed al-Maazab, a member of the High Council of State (HCS), revealed that some HoR representatives had their names included on lists of supporters without consent. Dismissing Belhaj’s endorsement as a maneuver for personal political gain, al-Maazab termed it a symbolic gesture unlikely to impact the current power dynamics.
Critics within Libya have raised concerns about the implications of the U.S. proposal, suggesting it risks entrenching a power-sharing arrangement rather than advancing democratic principles. Political analyst Abdulsalam al-Rajhi recently criticized the approach as more akin to a deal than a genuine initiative, suggesting Boulos is seeking a swift geopolitical victory without adequate experience.
However, some argue that practical engagement with Boulos’s initiative is necessary to break the deadlock. Analysts like Senussi Ismail contend that while concerns over potential dictatorial tendencies are valid, the current political situation requires taking strategic risks for greater stability. He asserted that the initiative should be integrated with the existing UN roadmap, ensuring new governance structures adhere to timelines culminating in elections.
William Lawrence, a former U.S. diplomat, offered a defense of the American engagement, stating that the primary goal must be to find economic solutions that will help unify the country’s various economic institutions. Lawrence expressed confidence in Boulos’s intentions to craft a sustainable solution.
This ongoing discourse occurs amid a wave of regional diplomatic efforts. Recently, foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye convened with Boulos in Cairo to explore collaborative solutions for Libya. In addition, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the formation of a new “R-4” regional mechanism involving Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, aimed at fostering regional stability.
Accompanying these political developments is a rise in intelligence activity on the ground in Libya. For instance, Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad held rare discussions with GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in Tripoli, while Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met with Saddam Haftar in Benghazi to explore pathways to stability and institutional unity.
Faisal Bwalraiga, a national security researcher, suggested that these movements signify a concerted international effort to create favorable circumstances for new political frameworks within Libya. He concluded that the country is at a crossroads, with possibilities of either reaching a new settlement or recalibrating power dynamics among various factions.
Currently, the GNU has yet to publicly declare its position on the U.S. proposal. Political analyst Elias al-Barouni suggested that this measured approach allows the government to maintain flexible political maneuvering, avoid divisive stances within the international community, and await further clarity from Washington regarding its plans.
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