As global geopolitical landscapes shift, the United States has positioned Pakistan among nations such as Russia and China, suggesting its advancing missile capabilities could pose a future threat to U.S. territory. This categorization, articulated in the Director of National Intelligence’s latest assessment, reflects both the complexities of South Asian geopolitics and the intricate dynamics between Islamabad and Washington. By contextualizing these assessments within an ever-evolving security framework, we can better understand the regional tensions that influence such evaluations.
Islamabad, Pakistan – The United States’ foremost intelligence official has identified Pakistan alongside Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as countries whose advancing missile capabilities could potentially threaten U.S. territory. During a presentation of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard expressed concerns about these five nations actively researching and developing a range of traditional and advanced missile delivery systems equipped with both nuclear and conventional payloads.
On Pakistan specifically, Gabbard indicated that its long-range ballistic missile development might include Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. The written assessment further categorized Pakistan across several threat vectors, noting its ongoing advancements in missile technology. These developments could enable its military to create missile systems with the capability to strike targets extending beyond South Asia, thus posing a potential risk to the U.S. if current trends persist.
Inherent regional tensions were underscored in the report, particularly the ongoing security challenges in South Asia, where India-Pakistan relations remain fraught with the potential for nuclear conflict. A specific incident referenced was last year’s attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, illustrating how violence from armed groups could escalate crises. Notably, it acknowledged the de-escalatory role played by former President Trump, asserting that both nations have so far steered clear of open conflict.
Looking ahead, the intelligence assessment estimated that the number of missile threats targeting the U.S. could soar from over 3,000 today to at least 16,000 by 2035. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Pakistan has not issued a formal response to these claims, and inquiries from ZezapTV have gone unanswered.
Tughral Yamin, a former army brigadier and specialist in arms control, pointed out that Gabbard’s statement is not unprecedented, as U.S. officials have similarly raised such concerns in the past. Pakistan has consistently communicated that its deterrence capabilities, both conventional and nuclear, are primarily aimed at India, emphasizing its commitment to peace on honorable terms rather than responding to external labeling.
Gabbard’s remarks were focused on potential future developments within Pakistan’s missile program, rather than its current capabilities. Experts cast doubt on the accuracy of U.S. intelligence assessments, arguing that Pakistan’s longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of about 2,750 kilometers (approximately 1,710 miles), which is sufficient to cover the entirety of India, but falls short of the threshold required to threaten U.S. territory.
While comparing Pakistan to nations with proven intercontinental capabilities, it is critical to recognize that only a select group of countries—namely Russia, the United States, France, China, and the United Kingdom—currently possess ICBMs that can travel distances exceeding 5,500 kilometers (3,420 miles). Pakistan’s distance from the United States exceeds 11,000 kilometers (7,000 miles), thus reinforcing the argument that its missile capabilities do not pose a direct threat to U.S. soil.
U.S. evaluations of Pakistan’s missile development have asserted that the country is several years away from achieving long-range ballistic missile capabilities. Nevertheless, Washington maintains close scrutiny over Pakistan’s missile programs, having sanctioned the National Development Complex in December 2024 due to allegations of procuring materials for long-range missile development.
Despite the intensifying scrutiny, Pakistan has previously labeled U.S. sanctions as politically motivated and driven by suspicion rather than evidence. Criticism of Gabbard’s assertions has emerged from prominent Pakistani figures, including former diplomats who argue that allegations of Pakistan posing a threat to the U.S. lack strategic credibility. They assert that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is resolutely aimed at maintaining deterrence against India rather than projecting power abroad.
As diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Pakistan continue to evolve, the recent assessments come at a pivotal time. Trump’s administration has claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan amidst escalations, laying the groundwork for a potential warming of relations.
The importance of Pakistan in the wider Middle East context has also been recognized, strengthening its position as a valuable interlocutor among Gulf states and Tehran, especially amid rising tensions in the region. A recent mutual defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signifies a commitment to regional stability and mutual support.
In conclusion, while concerns regarding missile capabilities and national security are valid points for discourse, a nuanced and evidence-based approach must prevail to contribute to constructive dialogue and peace in South Asia.
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