As tensions persist between Israel and Lebanon, the risk of another military confrontation looms large over the region, particularly following recent escalations and threats. While Israel accuses Lebanon’s government of inadequate action against Hezbollah, analysts argue that meaningful progress toward disarmament hinges on international cooperation and Israel’s willingness to uphold its commitments. The dynamics are complex, reflecting not only domestic politics but also the broader geopolitical landscape, suggesting that achieving lasting peace may require more than mere military calculations.
For months, Israel has threatened another military escalation against Lebanon, claiming it would serve as punishment for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) not moving swiftly enough to disarm Hezbollah, a group that has engaged in multiple conflicts with Israel since the 1980s. Despite these assertions, analysts suggest that Lebanon’s government and military have demonstrated intent to disarm Hezbollah, especially following the recent confrontations from September to November 2024.
While significant challenges remain on Lebanon’s side, experts assert that international support and Israel’s cooperation are vital for effective disarmament efforts. Political analyst Karim Emile Bitar noted that Israel has frequently violated ceasefire terms, making it unjust to attribute blame solely to the Lebanese government. He emphasized that the Lebanese leadership has acted decisively by directing the LAF to take steps toward disarming Hezbollah.
Nevertheless, a critical component of the situation is Israel’s reluctance to reciprocate Lebanon’s efforts, a point underscored during the visit of U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack to Israel. Barrack reportedly struggled to elicit acknowledgment from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding Lebanon’s commitment to disarmament, and he was unable to secure any concessions, such as a withdrawal from five Lebanese territories still occupied by Israel.
The history of Hezbollah can be traced back to the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), emerging primarily to counter Israeli occupation. While the group’s military presence remains a contentious issue within Lebanon, many observers welcomed the government’s August decision to bring its arms under state authority, even amid ongoing Israeli attacks. Israel’s military actions have claimed thousands of civilian lives and displaced over a million individuals, illustrating the significant humanitarian impact of the conflict.
Despite a ceasefire claimed on November 27, 2024, daily Israeli strikes on Lebanon persist, contributing to civilian casualties and preventing the return of thousands to their homes. Bitar pointed out that such consistent aggression reinforces the arguments of Hezbollah hardliners who contend that no matter Lebanon’s concessions, Israel is determined to continue its military activities in hopes of territorial gains.
LAF Commander Rodolph Haykal proposed halting disarmament efforts because of the disruptions caused by Israeli attacks. Bitar remarked that the pressures of Israeli maximalism not only undermine disarmament talks but also complicate Lebanon’s domestic political landscape. International actors such as France, the Vatican, and even Saudi Arabia could play pivotal roles in pressuring Israel to adhere to peace initiatives.
Prominent Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem criticized the Lebanese government for yielding to American and Israeli pressure without receiving any concessions. He posited that the issue extends beyond weapons, framing it as an ongoing excuse to undermine the existence of the Resistance.
As speculation swirls regarding the potential for another war, reports indicate that Israel may opt for a broader military campaign reminiscent of last year’s conflict. Nonetheless, analysts express doubt about the feasibility of such an endeavor, suggesting that military fatigue and shifting political landscapes in Israel might deter aggressive actions against Lebanon.
While the Israeli government faces mounting pressure to act against Hezbollah, Bitar emphasized that the continuing military approach is politically advantageous for lawmakers as the 2026 legislative elections approach. This complex interplay of regional and domestic politics, coupled with the humanitarian crises stemming from violence, raises critical questions about the path forward for both Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the urgent need for collaborative efforts toward lasting peace.
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