In recent developments, tensions have again flared in Ethiopia’s Afar region, raising concerns about the stability of a delicate peace process initiated in 2022. As accusations of cross-border aggression by Tigray forces proliferate, the historical context of this conflict underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the region, reflecting the complex dynamics of political power and ethnic relations in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s Afar region has accused neighboring Tigray forces of crossing into its territory, claiming the seizure of several villages and assaults on civilians, actions the Afar authorities categorize as violations of the 2022 peace agreement that concluded the two-year war in northern Ethiopia. This period of conflict, from 2020 to 2022, saw Tigray emerge as the epicenter of a brutal struggle involving the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal army, resulting in an estimated 600,000 fatalities, as reported by the African Union.
In a statement released late on Wednesday, the Afar administration reported that TPLF fighters “entered Afar territory by force.” They alleged that the group now controls six villages and has targeted civilians with mortar attacks, though specific details regarding casualties have not been disclosed. The Afar authorities expressed their condemnation by remarking, “The TPLF learns nothing from its mistakes,” describing the recent actions as “acts of terror.”
The conflict, which initially escalated earlier in this decade, extended into various regions of Ethiopia, including Afar, where local forces allied with federal troops. In its latest remarks, the Afar regional government noted that Tigrayan fighters attacked the Megale district in the northwest with heavy artillery, targeting civilian herders.
Authorities have issued a warning that unless the TPLF promptly ceases its military actions, Afar will take necessary defensive measures to safeguard its territory from external aggression. The administration remarked that the renewal of fighting “openly destroys the Pretoria peace agreement,” referencing the accord signed in November 2022, which marked the end of two years of devastating violence.
While attempts at maintaining a fragile peace had, up until recently, been somewhat successful, underlying tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF have intensified in the preceding months. The TPLF, which exerted significant influence over Ethiopian politics from 1991 until 2018, was officially removed from the country’s list of recognized political parties in May, amid rising internal discord and escalating distrust from the federal authorities.
Compounding the complexity of this situation, federal officials have accused the TPLF of re-establishing relations with Eritrea, a nation with a historically fraught relationship with Ethiopia. Eritrea, once a slice of Italian territory and later an Ethiopian province, engaged in a violent struggle for independence before achieving its statehood in 1993. A subsequent border conflict between the two nations from 1998 to 2000 resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. In 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration signed a transformative peace agreement with Eritrea, although relations have deteriorated once more since the conclusion of the Tigray conflict.
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