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Trump and Xi Approach Agreement Amid Ongoing Intensified US-China Rivalry

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As the global landscape continues to be reshaped by economic tensions, the imminent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping marks a pivotal moment. Set against the backdrop of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, the discussions could signal a cautious step toward de-escalating the ongoing trade conflicts that have defined their relationship since 2019. While substantial breakthroughs may be limited, the two leaders face growing pressures to navigate their nations’ frictions and chart a constructive path forward.

Gyeongju, South Korea – As U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepare to meet for the first time since 2019, Washington and Beijing seem on the verge of reaching a tentative agreement aimed at easing the intensity of their ongoing rivalry. Initial expectations suggest a modest deal that may lower tensions but fall short of resolving the numerous complexities characterizing the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

Key elements of the anticipated agreement reportedly focus on preventing further descent into conflict, rather than directly addressing the trade war that Trump initiated during his first term and has since intensified. Recent developments, including China’s proposed stringent export controls on rare earths, highlight the shifting dynamics in play.

Analysts convey a tempered outlook, indicating that regardless of the outcomes from this pivotal meeting at the APEC summit, the inherent friction between Washington and Beijing is likely to persist as both nations vie for influential standing in a rapidly evolving international order. Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, emphasizes that expectations for overcoming economic tensions should remain realistic given the extensive list of ongoing tariff threats, export controls, and the introduction of new digital regulations.

Although the specifics of any potential agreement remain fluid, discussions have begun to crystallize around a few key tenets. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent expressed optimism that China may reconsider its restrictions on rare earth exports and noted that Trump’s previously threatened 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods is likely to be abandoned. He anticipates that China will boost imports of U.S. soybeans, collaborate on curbing the flow of fentanyl precursors, and finalize a deal regarding the popular social media application TikTok.

While steering the bilateral relationship away from a complete breakdown, any agreement reached is poised to leave many tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions intact, continuing to hamper trade relations. Since the resumption of Trump’s presidency, trade between the U.S. and China has experienced a significant decline, with Chinese exports to the U.S. decreasing by 27 percent in September and imports of U.S. goods also falling 16 percent.

Experts predict ongoing tensions, warning that the foundational issues framing U.S.-China relations remain unaddressed. Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, forecasts that future relations may actually worsen due to China’s increasing geopolitical stature.

Shan Guo, a partner at Shanghai-based Hutong Research, sees the upcoming discussions primarily as a mechanism to avoid immediate escalation rather than paving the way for enduring peace. Nevertheless, some analysts posit that due to a reliance on Chinese rare earth resources, the U.S. and China may be compelled to seek a more extended period of cooperative engagement.

As the summit unfolds, observers remain hopeful that the two leaders could achieve positive tactical outcomes, even if a comprehensive trade agreement remains elusive. Both Trump and Xi’s divergent narratives regarding their countries’ relations illustrate the challenges ahead, with Trump lamenting America’s economic disadvantages and Xi advocating for “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation.”

In this changing landscape, maintaining respect and understanding from both sides may be crucial in navigating the complexities of their interactions moving forward.

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